Alaves vs Malaga Prediction

Alaves host Malaga on 23 October 2026 at 22:00 in La Liga's tenth round. Alaves sit seventh with 11 points and control their home pitch. Malaga are rooted to 20th place with four points and zero wins, arriving at Mendizorrotza in freefall. The gap between these teams shapes the entire contest: Alaves will dominate possession and press from the first whistle, while Malaga have surrendered in nine consecutive away league matches.

Alaves average two goals per game at home this season, second-best in the division. Their defence concedes under 1.1 per match across their last ten fixtures. Malaga concede two goals per away outing on average and have been outshot in all ten recent road games. The visitors lack attacking threat—they scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last ten away league matches and managed fewer than 3.5 shots on target in nine of those ten. Alaves have beaten Malaga in five of their last six head-to-head meetings, losing only once since 2016.

Alaves' main vulnerability is their own finishing. In eight of their last ten La Liga matches, they scored one goal or fewer, which could drag the result toward a draw if chances go begging. Still, Malaga's defensive fragility and away paralysis leave them too exposed to withstand sustained pressure.

Form and Head to Head

Alaves lost 1–2 to Celta in round nine, with Hugo Novoa pulling one back late but the hosts unable to find an equaliser. They have won three, drawn three, and lost four of their last ten matches. At home, they conceded under 2.5 goals in all five recent league fixtures and recorded under 3.5 total goals in four of five. In the first half of their last five home games, fewer than 2.5 goals were scored.

Malaga have not won in nine consecutive league rounds and sit bottom with six goals scored all season. Juan Funes' side lost 2–5 at home to Real Sociedad in round nine, both their goals coming after falling 0–2 behind. Away from home, Malaga committed over 24.5 fouls in eight of their last ten league matches, a sign of defensive desperation. They have won zero of their last ten away league games.

Alaves lead the head-to-head record 4–1–1 across their last six meetings. Alaves won 2–1 at home in May 2023 and 3–0 away in May 2018.

Best Bet

Back Alaves to win. Alaves are heavy favourites with good reason: they control the midfield at home, score regularly, and face an away team that has not won in nine league matches. Malaga's defence is porous and their attack toothless. At 1xBet, a home win pays 1.84. At 1Win, the same bet returns 1.76.

Odds to Watch

The 1X2 market reflects Alaves' dominance. Home win trades at 1.84 with 1xBet and 1.76 with 1Win. A draw sits at 3.72 (1xBet) or 3.61 (1Win). Malaga's win is priced 4.93 (1xBet) or 4.98 (1Win). Alaves' recent struggles to convert chances mean the draw holds some value, but the visitors' away record and defensive record make the home win the clearest play.