Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Palmeiras host Vasco da Gama on 1 November 2026 at 22:00 in the first leg of the Copa do Brasil semi-final in São Paulo. Palmeiras eliminated Santos 3-0 on aggregate in the quarter-final, while Vasco beat Vitória by the same scoreline. The second leg takes place 8 November in Rio de Janeiro. Palmeiras need to establish an advantage before travelling; Vasco will attempt to keep their path to the final open.

Form and H2H

Palmeiras have won six of their last ten home matches, conceding only 0.60 goals per game. Their three-centre-back system allows wide players to support attacks without exposing the middle, and they have shipped just 22 goals across 33 league matches this season. Vasco have won six of their last ten away games but average 1.21 goals conceded per outing. In the quarter-final against Vitória, Vasco scored twice in the second half but managed only two shots on target from 15 attempts against Flamengo, losing 4-1. That lack of precision will trouble them against Palmeiras' compact defence.

Head-to-head records show Palmeiras won 4-1 and 3-0 in their last two home meetings with Vasco. Vasco's last away win came in 2015.

Best Bet

Palmeiras to win with -1 handicap. Lopes has scored four goals in the Copa do Brasil this season and netted twice in the quarter-final at home. Roque has recovered from an ankle injury and trained fully on Saturday, strengthening Palmeiras' attacking options. Vasco's Gómez will miss the match due to a persistent left foot injury, limiting their transition play. Palmeiras' defensive solidity and clinical finishing in the cup—clean sheets in both quarter-final legs—should prevail over Vasco's inconsistent accuracy. At 1xBet, this bet trades at 3.32 for the draw and 5.71 for the away win, making the home selection the clear value.

Odds to Watch

Palmeiras' home win is available at 1.73 with Melbet, 1.74 with 1xBet, 1.71 with 1Win, and 1.61 with Mostbet. Both teams kept clean sheets in their respective quarter-final legs, suggesting a cautious opening. Vasco will defend deep and look to counter, which typically produces fewer goals in first legs of two-legged ties. Monitor Both teams to score markets and Under 2.5 totals as the match develops.