Wales vs Norway Prediction

Wales host Norway at Cardiff City Stadium on 1 October 2026 at 21:45 in UEFA Nations League round three. The Dragons arrive winless in their last two outings, losing to Portugal and Denmark without scoring. Norway come off a 2-1 defeat to Portugal despite 22 shot attempts and 2.52 expected goals, a performance that suggests attacking potency despite the result. Wales are missing Rodan, Wilson, and Davies through injury, while Brennan Johnson and Chris Mepham sit one yellow card from suspension. Norway will be without right-back Julian Ryerson due to a rib injury sustained against Portugal.

Form and H2H

Wales have won two of their last ten matches at home but conceded 1.56 goals per game over that stretch. They have scored in all five of their most recent home fixtures, though their recent defeats came without a goal. Norway's away record stands at six wins, two draws, and two losses across their last ten road trips, averaging 2.10 goals for and 1.60 against. Norway won 75 percent of their last four away matches, scoring 2.25 goals per game while conceding just 1.00. Erling Haaland scored Norway's equalizer against Portugal and remains the focal point of their attack.

Best Bet

Norway to win offers value given their superior away form and attacking output. Melbet price Norway at 1.49, 1xBet at 1.53, and Mostbet at 1.49. Norway have scored at least twice in three of their last four away games, and Wales' defensive injuries create further vulnerability. The prediction is Wales 1–3 Norway.

Odds to Watch

The Wales draw is available at 4.64 on Melbet, 4.76 on 1xBet, and 4.20 on Mostbet, though Wales' recent form and attacking shortage make that unlikely. A Wales home win sits at 5.85 on Melbet and 6.02 on 1xBet, reflecting the hosts' struggles. Over 2.5 goals is the most likely outcome given Norway's attacking threat and Wales' recent inability to keep clean sheets at home.