Türkiye vs Italy Prediction

Türkiye host Italy on 28 September 2026 at 21:45 in a UEFA Nations League top-flight clash at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Vincenzo Montella faces his native country in front of a hostile crowd, a fixture with deep personal weight. Türkiye have never beaten Italy in an official match, holding four draws and nine defeats across their history. Their most recent competitive meeting ended goalless at Euro 2024, but Italy won 3-0 at Euro 2020 and 3-2 in a friendly in Konya.

Form and H2H

Türkiye arrive on strong domestic form, winning six of their last ten matches with an average of 1.48 goals for and 0.99 against. Italy have been sharper on the road, winning seven of ten away games while scoring 1.65 goals per match and conceding 1.13. The hosts press aggressively from the opening whistle, with Arda Güler and Can Uzun operating through the half-spaces, but their defensive line is vulnerable to counterattacks. Italy control matches through midfield discipline—Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali set the tempo—and exploit the spaces Türkiye leave open when attacking. Moise Kean's runs in behind and Di Lorenzo's overlaps form the core of their attacking structure.

Best bet

Both teams to score - Yes. Türkiye's attacking unit, led by Güler and Uzun, will find the net in front of their home fans. Italy's defensive shape, while organized, cannot fully contain Türkiye's intensity and creative talent. Simultaneously, Türkiye's positional lapses in defense will give Italy the space to punish on the break through Kean and their flanking play. This fixture carries the hallmarks of an open, contested match where both sides create genuine chances. Back Both teams to score at 1xBet 3.71.

Odds to watch

Italy's away record and tactical maturity make them a legitimate threat despite playing in Bursa. A home win sits at 2.61 with Melbet, 2.59 with 1xBet, and 2.54 with Mostbet. The draw, reflecting the competitive balance and historical pattern between these sides, trades at 3.58 with Melbet and 3.27 with Mostbet. An Italy victory is priced at 2.56 with Melbet, 2.66 with 1xBet, and 2.57 with Mostbet.