Torpedo Moskva vs Veles Prediction

Torpedo Moskva host Veles on 17 September 2026 at 19:00 in round 12 of the First League. Torpedo sit fifth with 19 points from 10 matches and a goal difference of 20:8. They won five of their last ten home games, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home. Veles arrive on the back of a 1-2 home loss to Sochi and have won five of their last ten away matches, but score just 0.8 goals per game on the road while conceding 1.4.

Torpedo's attacking pressure at Arena Khimki remains high. In their last ten home league matches, they recorded more than 10.5 shots (including blocked attempts) and at least four shots on target. They scored a minimum of two goals in nine of their last ten home games. Veles tighten defensively away from home: in four of their last five away matches, the total goals stayed under 2.5, with an average of 2.2 per game. Veles also limited their away shots to a maximum of five corners in nine of their last ten road trips.

Form and H2H

Torpedo lost 1-2 at home to Nizhny Novgorod on 13 September after Alexei Kashtanov equalized on 39 minutes, but manager Alexander Storozhuk was sent off on 51 minutes and Nizhny converted a penalty. Four days earlier, Torpedo won 4-1 away at Tekstilshchik. Veles drew 1-1 away at Ufa on 5 September before the loss to Sochi.

Head-to-head records favor Torpedo heavily. They won 3-0 most recently on 16 October 2025, and have taken the upper hand in five of their last six meetings. Veles' only win came 0-1 at home on 5 December 2020. Torpedo won 5-3 away on 17 October 2021 and 5-0 at home on 30 August 2020.

Best bet

Torpedo Moskva over 1.5 goals is the pick. Torpedo average 1.9 goals at home and face a Veles side that concedes 1.4 away. Veles scored just 0.8 goals in their last ten away matches, making it unlikely they will force Torpedo into a defensive scramble after conceding first. The home side's attacking patterns at Arena Khimki consistently generate space and chances. Veles' defensive shape away from home limits their ability to push for an open game, which reduces the risk of Torpedo needing to commit heavy numbers to defense. The main risk remains a low-scoring away performance from Veles, but Torpedo's home form and Veles' away vulnerability make the over 1.5 the stronger angle.

Odds to watch

Torpedo Moskva are clear favorites. A home win is priced at 1.52, a draw at 4.00, and a Veles win at 6.40. On the Over/Under 2.5 line, Under sits at 1.80 and Over at 1.95, indicating a slight lean toward fewer goals. Torpedo's individual total Over 1.5 is available at 1.70 against Under 1.5 at 2.02. Veles' individual total Under 1.5 is priced at 1.15 against Over 1.5 at 4.50, reflecting their weak away scoring record. Both teams to score pays 2.05 for Yes and 1.73 for No.