Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction

Sassuolo host Fiorentina on 2 November 2026 at 20:30 in Serie A's 11th round. Sassuolo have conceded in all of their last 10 matches across all competitions, averaging 2.1 goals per game. Fiorentina average 2.2 goals conceded over the same span. At home, Sassuolo scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches, though their average output sits at 1.5 goals per game. Fiorentina drew 2–2 with Atalanta on 29 October and lost 1–2 to Inter four days earlier. Sassuolo lost 0–2 to Como on 24 October and 2–6 to Lazio at home on 27 October. Both teams have seen over 5.5 total shots on target in their last 10 matches.

Form and H2H

Sassuolo's last 10 home matches show 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 1.5 goals for and 2.3 goals against per game. Fiorentina's last 10 away matches produced 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, averaging 1.4 goals for and 2.1 against. Head-to-head records from 2014 to 2017 show mixed results: Fiorentina won twice (3–1 in April 2016, 2–1 in December 2016), Sassuolo drew twice (1–1 in November 2015, 2–2 in May 2017), and one 0–0 draw in September 2014. Fiorentina's only defeat came in February 2015 when they lost 1–3 at home.

Best bet

Sassuolo over 1.5 goals offers value given their home scoring record and Fiorentina's defensive fragility. Sassuolo scored at least twice at home in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches. Fiorentina conceded in all 10 of their recent matches and allowed opponents an average of 6 shots on target per game. The risk lies in Sassuolo's expected goals average of 1.39 over their last 10 matches and their recent heavy losses. However, the combination of Sassuolo's home potency and Fiorentina's consistent leakiness tilts the edge toward the home side scoring multiple goals. At 1xBet, Sassuolo over 1.5 goals is priced at 2.15.

Odds to watch

Fiorentina are slight favourites at 2.34 on Mostbet, with Sassuolo at 2.79 and the draw at 3.65. Both teams to score is priced at 1.48, reflecting the likelihood that both defences will be breached. Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.55, while under 2.5 is 2.35. Sassuolo's individual total under 1.5 goals is 1.65, offering a hedge against their inconsistent finishing. Fiorentina's individual total over 1.5 goals is 1.85, nearly even with the under at 1.90.