Italy vs Belgium Prediction

Italy host Belgium on 25 September 2026 at 21:45 in Rome for the opening fixture of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League. Italy arrive as heavy favorites, having won eight of their last ten matches at home and conceding fewer than three goals in eight of those ten outings. Belgium begin their campaign under new manager Marco van Bommel, appointed in summer 2026, and face an Italian side that has not drawn at home in eight consecutive matches across all competitions.

Form and H2H

Italy have scored in all ten of their last ten matches and average 2.26 goals per game at home over that run, while Belgium have found the net in nine of their last ten outings and average 2.60 goals per game away. The head-to-head record favors Italy: they won 2–0 in 2016, 2–1 in July 2021, and 1–0 in November 2024, though the sides drew 2–2 most recently in October 2024. Belgium's opponents have scored no more than two goals in each of their last ten matches, suggesting a pattern of low-scoring contests against van Bommel's side. Italy's defensive discipline is notable—they have committed no more than 13 fouls in eight of their last ten matches and conceded a maximum of one offside in eight of their last ten home games.

Best bet

Both teams to score. Italy have scored in every one of their last ten matches and Belgium in nine of their last ten, making an exchange of goals the natural outcome. Italy play an open attacking style and have conceded regularly at home; Belgium maintain a high tempo and have seen at least two goals in nine of their last ten matches. The main risk is van Bommel's first assignment and squad rotation, but both sides carry the habit of scoring. Mostbet offer 2.08 for an Italy win if you prefer the safer route, but both teams to score captures the attacking profile of both sides.

Odds to watch

Italy are priced at 2.14 on Melbet, 2.2 on 1xBet, 2.55 on 1Win, and 2.08 on Mostbet for a home win. The draw sits at 3.56 on Melbet, 3.64 on 1xBet, 2.15 on 1Win, and 3.45 on Mostbet. Belgium's odds range from 3.26 on Melbet to 3.32 on 1xBet, 3.8 on 1Win, and 3.13 on Mostbet. Italy's corner dominance—they have taken at least four corners in eight of their last ten matches—and Belgium's tendency to concede without generating many attacking opportunities suggest Italy will control possession and territory throughout.