Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag Prediction

Excelsior '31, a fourth-tier side from Reyssen, hosts ADO Den Haag of the Eredivisie in the KNVB Beker first round on 27 October 2026 at 20:45. The gap in class runs three divisions deep. Excelsior arrive bruised: they lost 0–4 away to Harkemase Boys last weekend and will miss Kevin Peppels, their top striker, through injury. Den Haag, despite a weak start to their league campaign with just 6 points from 10 matches, have sharpened their attack in recent weeks and scored twice in three straight Eredivisie rounds. The home crowd will pack the stadium, but Excelsior face a mismatch in firepower.

Form and H2H

Excelsior sit fifth in the third tier after 11 rounds. At home they have won six of their last ten, averaging 2.1 goals for and 1.4 against. They demolished DOVO 3–0 and Genemuyden 5–0 at Reyssen but crumbled away to Harkemase Boys. The loss exposed their reliance on Peppels; without him, finishing dried up—Stan ter Haar hit the post, Tom Koelman's header was cleared off the line, and the hosts shipped two more in the closing stages.

Den Haag have conceded 23 goals in 10 Eredivisie matches, a chronic defensive leak that costs them points every week. Against Herenveen last time out they lost 2–3 despite creating 3.1 expected goals and landing 7 of 15 shots on target. Robin Peter's side generates chances—they fired 23 shots to Herenveen's 15—but their backline folds under pressure. A fourth-tier defence will offer little resistance.

The teams met in October 2022, with Den Haag winning 3–2 at home.

Best bet

Den Haag win with handicap (-1.5). Excelsior's injury crisis and recent collapse on the road leave them vulnerable to a superior opponent playing with clear intent. Den Haag's attacking rhythm has built over three consecutive league rounds of two-goal hauls. Once the visitors open the scoring, Excelsior will stretch to chase the game and invite counterattacks. At 1xBet, the away win sits at 1.14; at 1Win, 1.15. The handicap (-1.5) offers better value at the implied probability of a two-goal margin or larger.

Odds to watch

Den Haag's defence remains porous even against weaker opponents. Excelsior attack with teeth at home and pose set-piece danger. Both teams have shown they can score. Over 2.5 goals carries appeal given the attacking intent on both sides and Den Haag's defensive frailty. The 1X2 market prices Den Haag at 1.14 (1xBet) and 1.15 (1Win), with the draw at 7.1 (1xBet) and 7 (1Win).