Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction

Lithuania travel to Azerbaijan on 4 October 2026 at 16:00 in a Nations League Division D clash between two sides relegated from the tier above. Lithuania opened their campaign with a 2-0 away win over Liechtenstein, a convincing performance that saw them register seven shots on target and 1.28 expected goals. Azerbaijan prepared with a 1-0 friendly victory over Tajikistan but suffered a catastrophic previous Nations League season, winning just one point across six matches and conceding 17 goals in the process.

Both teams endured poor World Cup qualifying campaigns. Lithuania managed three draws and five defeats, finishing last in their group. Azerbaijan earned a single point from a 1-1 draw with Ukraine while facing France and Iceland, ultimately bottom of their section. The head-to-head record shows a 0-0 draw in March 2019 and a 1-1 stalemate from their most recent meeting on 27 September 2026.

Form and H2H

Lithuania's last ten matches show three wins, three draws, and four losses, averaging 1.39 goals for and 1.10 against. Their Liechtenstein win ended a 2.5-year drought in official matches without victory. Coach Edgaras Jankauskas has recalled defender Kazukolovas from injury after nearly a year sidelined, while midfielder Michelbrinkas scored on his debut and Doulnikov added a second goal. Midfielder Magdushauskas, one of Lithuania's best domestic players with 2+7 in 26 matches, misses out through injury.

Azerbaijan's last ten shows three wins, three draws, and four losses, averaging 1.08 goals for and 0.90 against. Captain Emin Makhmudov anchors midfield with 16 goals in 64 appearances, while Toral Bayramov provides defensive and attacking width. Forward Mahir Emreli has started all nine Ekstraklasa matches this season with three goals and one assist. However, Azerbaijan face significant absences: defenders Kismat Aliyev, Mustafazade, and Jafarguliyev, midfielder Sabukhi Abdullazade, and forward Akhunzade are all unavailable, weakening their defensive line considerably.

Best bet

Lithuania to win at 2.31 with 22Bet. The hosts showed clear superiority in their opening match and face an Azerbaijan side depleted across the backline. Lithuania's recent home record includes wins against the Netherlands (2-3) and Romania (1-2) in official competition, demonstrating they attack with intent on familiar ground. Azerbaijan's defensive losses outweigh their attacking improvements, and their previous Nations League season exposed fundamental structural weaknesses.

Odds to watch

Both teams to score is available at standard odds across the market. Lithuania have scored in their last six official home matches except against Poland, while Azerbaijan registered goals in five of their last six outings including the 1-3 loss to France. The draw sits at 2.98 with 22Bet, a reasonable hedge given the 1-1 result from their September meeting, though Lithuania's momentum and home advantage make the away side's defensive injuries the deciding factor. Azerbaijan's odds of 3.83 reflect their recent form collapse and personnel shortage.