Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Alaves host Atletico Madrid on 10 October 2026 at 17:15 in La Liga's eighth round. Atletico arrive as clear favourites, having won three consecutive league matches including a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid last time out. Alaves sit sixth with 11 points after drawing 0-0 away at Atletico in their last outing, a result that extended their run to three consecutive games without a win.

The central tension here is attacking volume against defensive solidity. Atletico average 2.29 goals per game in La Liga this season—third in the division—and have scored in eight of their last ten away matches with over 2.5 goals. Alaves concede just 0.86 goals per game and share first place in the league for defensive tightness. Yet Alaves themselves average 1.57 goals at home across their opening seven matches and regularly create chances through aggressive attacking play. Atletico had only two full training sessions after the international break, which may dull their cohesion despite their firepower.

Form and H2H

Atletico have dropped points only twice in seven league games: a 2-2 draw with Villarreal and a 0-3 loss to Athletic Bilbao. They won all other fixtures and currently lead the table with 16 points. Alaves won three of their first six matches before drawing with Rayo Vallecano 1-1 and then taking that goalless draw at Atletico.

The head-to-head record heavily favours the visitors. Alaves have not beaten Atletico in two years. Their last six meetings read: Atletico 1-0, Alaves 0-1, Atletico 3-0, Alaves 0-4, Alaves 1-1, Atletico 2-1. Atletico won four of those six and have never conceded more than one goal in any of them.

Best bet

Over 2.5 goals. Atletico's attacking output away from home is consistent and clinical. They have landed over 2.5 in eight of their last ten La Liga away matches and registered more than 3.5 shots on target in all ten recent league games. Alaves score regularly at home and will not sit deep. The visitors' limited preparation time after Europe is the only brake on what should be an open match. At 1xBet, the away win is 1.85.

Odds to watch

Atletico Madrid win trades at 1.85 on 1xBet, reflecting their status as heavy favourites. A draw sits at 3.92, while an Alaves victory is priced 4.57. The individual total for Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals offers value given their recent form, though exact pricing for that market is not available. Both teams to score is worth monitoring as Alaves have shown attacking intent in their recent matches and Atletico rarely keep clean sheets on the road.