Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction

Ajax host NEC Nijmegen on 10 October 2026 at 22:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena. The hosts arrive off a 2-2 draw with Excelsior and face a Nijmegen side winless in their last four league games. Ajax have averaged 3.20 goals per game at home across their last ten matches, while Nijmegen concede 2.30 per game over the same run. Caio Henrique's injury from the Excelsior match opens the door for Owen Wijndal at left-back, and Kasper Dolberg continues as Ajax's lead striker. Nijmegen's Kevin Kers is doubtful after a knock sustained in the 1-1 draw with Go Ahead Eagles.

Form and H2H

Ajax have won six of their last ten home matches, drawing three and losing one. Nijmegen's away record reads two wins, three draws, and five losses across the same span. The head-to-head record strongly favours Ajax: they won 3-0 in November 2011, 4-1 in February 2012, 6-1 in August 2012, and 4-1 in March 2013. A 3-0 victory followed in November 2013. The sides drew 2-2 in May 2014, their only meeting without an Ajax win. Nijmegen have not beaten Ajax in over a decade.

Best Bet

Ajax to Win at 1.31 with 1xBet or 1.31 with 1Win. The hosts' home form, Nijmegen's defensive fragility, and the decisive historical advantage make this the clearest play. Ajax have scored 3.00 goals per game in their last five home fixtures and face opponents who have failed to win any of their last four league outings.

Odds to Watch

Over 2.5 goals carries appeal given both teams' recent output and the H2H pattern of high-scoring meetings. Ajax Over 1.5 goals aligns with the hosts' strong home scoring record. The Draw at 5.99 with 1xBet or 5.8 with 1Win offers value only as a contrarian hedge, given Nijmegen's current form and the historical mismatch between these sides.